Nagare
Tools  /  Delivery Date Forecaster

Delivery date forecaster.

Turn uncertainty into clarity. We take your team's historical delivery data and run it through 10,000 possible 'future' scenarios to show you exactly when you're likely to finish. Goodbye guesswork 👋🏻.

How the magic happens. We use a Monte Carlo simulation. Instead of giving you one 'perfect' date (which doesn't exist), our engine looks at your completed work over time (throughput) and simulates your remaining work 10,000 times. This accounts for the natural fluctuations of software delivery, giving you a forecast based on probability.

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1 Team Performance

Upload a CSV export from Jira, Asana, Linear, Azure DevOps, or any tool that tracks completion dates. The more history you provide, the more accurate the forecast.

Select your CSV history CSV · drag & drop or click
How to export from Jira

Exporting Jira Issues to CSV via JQL

Follow these steps to filter your project for completed work and export it with the necessary data fields:

1. Access the Advanced Search

  • In the top navigation bar, click Filters.
  • Select View all issues (or Advanced issue search).
  • If you see dropdown filters, click Switch to JQL in the top right of the search area.

2. Run Your JQL Query

Below a sample query to get you started. Paste it into the search bar (replace YOUR_PROJECT with your actual project key) and press Enter:

project = "YOUR_PROJECT" AND status IN (Done)

Tip: If you have multiple projects or want to filter by specific teams, epics, or timeframes, adjust the JQL accordingly. Check out the Atlassian's guide for Jira Queries

3. Add Required Columns

Jira only exports what is visible. To ensure your data is included:

  • Click the Columns button on the right side of the screen.
  • Search for and check Resolved.
  • (Optional) Search for and check Story Points.
  • Click Done.

4. Export the File

  • Click the Export button (top right icon).
  • Select Export Excel CSV (my fields).
Note: Selecting "my fields" ensures the output is clean and specifically includes the Resolved and Story Points columns you just added.

2 Project Scope

Count only unfinished work. Don't include items already resolved.

How much of your total work is still undiscovered? At 0% your backlog is fully defined. At 50% you expect to find as much new work as you already have.

The simulation will plan for 40 total items · 50% unknown

The date your team begins working through the remaining backlog items. Usually today, or the start of your next sprint. This could be in the past too, if some items are already in progress.

3 Capacity Adjustments

Add holidays or reduced-capacity periods. Use 0 for a shutdown, 0.5 for half-team.